Ukraine war will be ‘end for Putin’ says Kelowna history prof

Launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, emulating empiric nation building of a time long gone, will be the end of Vladimir Putin, according to one history professor.

Howard Hisdal, who teaches at Okanagan College and spent 25 years in the Canadian military, told Kelowna10 the Russian president “won’t survive this.”

“This is his swan song. … This is an act of insanity. A reckless gamble,” he said.

Russian forces moved into Ukraine this week, shattering 70-plus years of peace on continental Europe.

Troops have been quick to move on the nation’s capital, Kiev, an action Hisdal likened to that of Nazi Germany’s invasion of Poland in 1939.

Unlike that event, he doesn’t believe it will spark a third world war. In fact, he believes Ukraine will amount the victor.

“Putin wants to have the ancient Russian Empire back. Ukrainian people don’t want that. I don’t think the Russian people want that either,” he said.

Little support among Russian people

Massive anti-war efforts have already erupted in the streets of Moscow and St. Petersburg, a brave move by the Russian people, he said. Media reported that nearly 1,400 people were arrested on the first night. It’s here where the war might be won, Hisdal said, with “the Russian people themselves rising in a rebellion against a stupid, futile war.”

Hisdal said the will of a military to fight is crucial to its abilities on the battlefield. He invoked Mark Twain to back his point: It's not the size of the dog in the fight. It’s the size of the fight in the dog.

He anticipates waning motivation on behalf of the Russian army as they question why they are attacking Ukraine and come face to face with their supposed enemy.

“They are doing a conquest of a people that look and sound virtually like them,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army, he said has a charismatic and courageous leader to look up to and a cause to get behind: independence. A 1991 Ukrainian plebiscite about becoming an independent nation garnered support from over 92 per cent of the population. It’s likely that number has only grown, Hisdal said.

“They will have the fight/ They will have the will to fight. And the Russians increasingly will not when they realize they have essentially been lied to. It’s hard to maintain the lies on the battlefield,” he added.

As Russian soldiers move towards Kiev, the government has started to arm average Ukrainians. Hisdal said the move to defend the capital is a sign officials trust a people who are ready to fight.

In Iraq, Saddam Husain made a similar move, opening his cache of weapons to the masses as the country started to fall. The armed population managed to bog down American troops for some time.

But he warned the armed population must not let emotion get the best of them on the battlefield. He said the fighting must be contained to within Ukraine’s borders and any prisoners of war must be treated well.

He said soldiers mustn’t undertake terrorist operations within Russia, like Chechnya did, and risk turning the war into one against the Russian people.

“This is not a war against the Russian people. This is a war against the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin,” he said.

History won’t be fond on Putin

At any length, the history books, he said, will not take kindly to Putin’s march into Ukraine.

“It’s going to look like a senile operation of a last-ditch elderly president of Russia whose day is done and his last attempt to hang onto the levers of power,” Hisdal said. “You’ve lost the Empire. It’s gone. Just let it go. Ukraine is an independent country. It’s not in the Soviet Empire, and it’s not in the Czarist Empire. Time to come to the 21st century.”

The world has collectively imposed harsh economic sanctions against Russian banks, state officials, airlines, and oligarchs in the wake of the attack. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that Canada will levy sanctions on Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, personally.

Hisdal said the economic pressures are important and need to be kept up but acknowledged it will in turn hurt Canadians.

“The whole world is going to hurt economically over this stupid war but, the Ukrainians are fully justified in a vigorous defence,” he said. “And that’s their only hope.”