Russia will be defeated by Christmas, says prof, as war marks one year

Friday marks the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but a Kelowna history professor figures the war will not last another year and has repeated his initial prediction of a Ukrainian victory.

The Feb. 24 invasion ordered by President Vladimir Putin, and overwhelmingly labelled a violation of international law by the United Nations, was a shocking event.

It has since resulted in an estimated 300,000 casualties, had massive global economic consequences, and ratchetted dangerous tensions between the world’s major powers.

As Kelowna, like cities across the world, gets set to mark the dark day with a candlelight vigil, Howard Hisdal from Okanagan College, figures the tanks promised by the NATO powers will be a game changer.

“I’m amazed the Russians haven’t collapsed yet,” he told Kelowna10. He predicted last year the ‘reckless invasion’ would be Putin’s undoing and Russian forces would ultimately back off due to a lack of motivation.

NATO tanks will change everything

“I’m looking forward to the main battle tanks getting to Ukraine and once they have them that may give the Russian army an excuse for mass surrender,” he said.

NATO will supply Ukraine with dozens of state-of-the-art US Abrams, British Challenger and European and Canadian Leopard tanks.

“Western tanks knifed through the Soviet era tanks catastrophically in the 1991 Iraq war,” Hisdal explained. “This is why Ukraine wants them, they’re good. Apparently, the Ukrainians are training 10 hours a day or more… they’re highly motivated, they’ve sent tank crews [for training] directly from the front lines, men who have a year of experience in the turret.”

Hisdal knows about military matters beyond the lecture room; he spent 25 years in the Canadian military, which included nine years behind the turret of an armoured vehicle and ten parachute jumps.

He added, the lack of modern equipment in other areas of the Russian army will ultimately mean defeat.

“The conscripts all have cell phones …and they’re taking pictures of the equipment they’re being issued. The helmets are from World War II and some of the rifles are being re-issued from 1892! To have a rifle that is like 120 years old, that has to be demoralizing,” he said.

But old equipment alone isn’t the only factor playing against Putin’s forces, according to Hisdal, who notes the need for Russia to be using the Wagner Group conscript mercenary penal battalion units means “ …[they’re] really at the bottom of the barrel.

Motivation factor

“I don’t know how Putin is keeping his army motivated. The Ukrainians have motivation: they’re fighting for the existence of their country. But what are the Russians fighting for?”

Hisdal said he expects the Ukrainians to respond to an expected Russian spring offensive, with the modern tanks and NATO style tactics in a summer or fall counter-offensive.

“By Christmas, by December, I think it’ll be over,“ he predicted. “But, it’ll have to be a trigger point where the Russian army decides to pack it in.”

Analysts estimate anywhere between 180,000 to 200,000 Russians are dead and wounded, with 100,000 or more on the Ukrainian side. This does not include thousands of civilians who have died or been injured.

On Friday, Kelowna will gather for a candlelight vigil at the St. Peter & Paul Ukrainian Orthodox Church on Barlee Road at 5:30 p.m.

The organizers, Kelowna Stands With Ukraine, said it will be an opportunity for the community to come together in peace to honour fallen heroes and civilians.