Here's why you might be paying more for wine next year

An award-winning winery manager says widespread winter damage to grape vines across the area appears even worse than initially projected.

That will likely impact what wines and what prices you see on the shelves next year.

David Paterson, the general manager and winemaker at Tantalus Vineyards in East Kelowna, was referring to the miniscule spring budbreak of his crops, and others that he’s seen, that will lead to a massive reduction in output this year.

“Like a lot of vineyards in the area, it’s been severely hurt,” Paterson told Kelowna10 as he pointed to the sparse buds on the vines in his Pinot Noir block.

The vines’ trunks are damaged and there are very few fruit-producing primary shoots emerging. That’s a direct result of the extreme cold that swept across the province on Dec. 21 and 22.

“At least there is life in every vine,” Paterson said, trying to find a positive note following yet another challenging year of weather. “The biggest concern for the industry at the moment is going to be a lack of volume of grapes.”

While he figured his crops show signs they can be rehabilitated, others in the area are not so fortunate.

Heartbreaking losses

“Some vineyards that I’ve gone and looked at are actually dead, which is heart-breaking for all of those landowners, growers and wineries,” Paterson said.

While some companies have deep pockets and can handle the loss, other, smaller growers are facing a three-to-four-year recovery if their vines are dead, he said. Some face the prospect of having to remove and replace them.

“If you’ve got a vineyard that’s 20, 30, 40 years old that’s been producing incredibly high-quality wine and suddenly you’re having to rip out all those trunks and replant or retrain, that’s an impact that is longer than just one season,” he explained.

A report commissioned by Wines Of British Columbia and published in April, projected between 40 and 56 per cent of grape and wine production could be lost because of the extreme cold event and would have an overall economic impact of up to $440 million.

The temperatures plummeted below -20°C for a sustained period in most regions in the BC Interior, and as low as -30°C in Kelowna and West Kelowna.

Paterson figured his likely harvest volume in the fall will be even less than the worst-case scenario projected in the Wines of BC report and said the weather challenges have lingered for years.

Massive reduction in output

“Really, the first bad winter was the 2018/19 season. To give you an idea, we were producing three tons to the acre of high-quality grapes to turn into wine back then. That’s 140-150 tons off this home site. We’ll be lucky to get 30 tons this year,” he said.

He’s hopeful he will not need to rip out the vines. They have 10 to 15 years of root system underneath that is accessing the soil, the terroir, that helps give the grapes their flavour.

While years of severe weather - which included the heat dome and wildfire smoke of 2021 - has been a challenge, Paterson pointed out it hasn’t all been bad news.

“Last year, that beautiful October we had really saved the season and turned it from what could have been a cold, mediocre season. I think 2022s across the valley are beautiful wines,” he explained.

Provincial help appreciated but not enough

Last month the provincial government announced up to $15 million for the Perennial Crop Renewal Program to help growers replant, if necessary, more resilient, climate-friendly crops. But Paterson said while funding is always welcome, the amount is a drop in the bucket when considering the money that’s needed to address such widespread damage. He’s also concerned any funding may come with strings attached such as having to plant certain varieties.

“I’d like to see producers given the benefit of the doubt that we’re the ones who’ve been through this, we’re the ones who have been working this land for a long time. I’d like to see producers given the choice on what they do.”

Retail supply impact

In terms of how the final wine consumer may be impacted by the huge volume losses this growing year, Paterson said there may be an absence of certain types based on how wineries choose to make their money.

“Where we’re going to start seeing the shortage will be this time next year where no one has made any rosé for example, because the premium on red grapes will mean they [the wineries] will really need to make their top red wine [only].”

Alternatively, he said some wineries may decide to make only rosé because they see a shortage in the market, and they need the cash flow. Rosé is quicker, easier and cheaper to produce as there are no barrels involved.

“My prediction would be we’ll see far less of the easily affordable sub-$20 pinot gris and rosé on the market and quality will be king. Every grape will command a premium because there is so little,” Paterson said.