A tale of two winters: Why this one just might not come

Admittedly, last winter came really early and brought extreme cold. It was the winter that refused to back off.

But by contrast, this winter refuses to arrive with one of the warmest ever Decembers on record according to Environment Canada. Temperatures are on average almost four degrees above normal.

And you can largely blame El Niño for that.

“The winter has been a continuation of the year we had in 2023, which was the driest or near driest and warmest on record in central B.C. and the Okanagan,” meteorologist Brian Proctor with Environment Canada told Kelowna10.

“We have a really strong El Niño that built through 2023 and became much more significant as we moved into the fall,” Proctor explained.

The El Niño effect, which sees an unusually warm mass of water in the southern Pacific Ocean, then combined with a very strong upper ridge of high pressure centred over the B.C. interior.

“This El Niño has such a dominant signature on the atmosphere and flow patterns we’re seeing,” he said.

We finally received some snowfall in the valley bottoms Wednesday, but it didn’t stick. And while we may see further light snowfall and colder, more seasonal temperatures for the next ten days, Proctor figures that won’t last.

“Our models suggest El Niño will remain a far more dominant feature as we head towards the end of January and into February. The models aren’t giving us clear signals on the amount of precipitation but definitely looks like it’s going to be a warmer winter than normal.”

Can an El Niño winter have a sting in its tail? Could we yet see a wild, snowy February and March? While warm air can hold more moisture, Proctor said unfortunately that very stable upper ridge of high pressure that accompanies the El Niño is the issue.

“For us to see really heavy snowfall events through the Okanagan Valley we need fairly deep Arctic air entrenched over the top of the valleys and then we bring warm air across the top,” he explained. “And it doesn’t look like we’re going to have enough of that cold, dense air.”

Proctor suggested that doesn’t bode well for snow sports enthusiasts nor the wildfire and agricultural situation for later this year. The expected low snowpacks point to yet another dry year.